New Year's first central bank reserve ratio adjustment extremely pessimistic analysts

 12 month data will lead to control speculation or further monetary tightening triggered

five private assessment raising the deposit reserve ratio

he expects this year to raise interest rates 75 basis points, and the best time to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, to generate enough of the impact of market expectations. In addition, the appreciation of the RMB is likely to continue to respond to imported inflation. Credit, if credit blow in January, then it may lead to the introduction of more credit control in February.

Asia economist Jun Ma, Deutsche Bank expects inflation to peak in June, in the second half and gradually come down. However, this

Ma said that at the expense of economic growth, inflation out of control and between the two, the former more harmful. Once inflation reaches the point where out of control, governance must be strong medicine, when the damage on the economy even more. He said that as long as the annual GDP growth rate is still above 8% is acceptable, control inflation and provide policy space.

BBVA study shows just the past 12 months on the CPI increase, the market has expected a 4.6% decline the previous month. Goldman Sachs forecasts this data is 4.2%; while the producer price index in November from 6.1% to 4.6%.

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deposit reserve ratio increase, some analysts extremely pessimistic

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REVIEW:

12 month data will lead to control speculation or further monetary tightening triggered

from various agencies in December of prediction, economic heat will decrease. But the outlook is not very optimistic. Since the beginning of bank lending concentration, climate factors, the markets are more worried about is that the external economic environment is very favorable. Last December, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea and other neighboring countries have the rise of inflation, the common factor behind the rise in international commodity prices of imported inflation. In response, South Korea reduces import tariffs and prices of food and service control; Indonesia also announced that it would cut wheat, soybeans and feed materials import tariffs. In addition, Thailand and South Korea were announced in the past week to raise interest rates to fight inflation momentum.

last November's CPI rose 5.1% to expand to more than market expectations, followed by the first interest rate increase by 25 basis points and deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points increase. So last December's CPI data, the four-quarter growth data, and other economic activities will be closely watched data. Higher than expected if the data again, it is possible to further monetary tightening in the new touch and administrative control measures.

the first year the central bank adjusted the reserve Lvyi deep

last December will be released this week, the consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), nominal retail sales, industrial added value, fixed assets investment and GDP growth in the fourth quarter, and other key economic data. The data on inflation which will directly affect the first quarter of this year's macroeconomic policies.