Andy Xie, real estate stocks can not save the economy

 Discrimination Act stimulated the Huangpu River: Golden Rock PK Xie 
Sohu blog
market on the road to the 2500 confused and exacerbated differences between long and short. Liquidity-driven the rally continue? loose monetary impact of inflation expectations caused by geometry? new driving force of economic growth where? stimulus whether the overweight?
on Wednesday, the Huangpu River at the contradiction between the rich forum will show the long and short even more heated. private economists believe that the macro data solace in the market, but did not see signs of economic recovery. official economists stressed the Chinese economy took the lead in the global economic recovery, ushered in a rare investment opportunities. Fund managers and economists, the official starting point may be different, but just being in a camp, the recovery from the index they found a reason to do more.
independent economist Andy Xie, director of Rosetta Stone Advisors recurrence How to survive?
Management, Asia Pacific CEO)
Linru Hui (QDII fund manager Wells Fargo Funds)
credit increased inflation expectations under
the first quarter, up RMB 4.58 trillion yuan of new loans. 5 trillion yuan in the year Added basic completion of the scale of the credit plan. rapid increase in credit, but also to inflation concerns back into the market. Xie said the central bank inflation deflation depends on the attitude, compared to inflation and deflation, Baker that the Government seems more like inflation. < br> Golden Rock: Deflation is temporary, and soon will enter a vicious inflation or deflation, the deflation is price fell 20 years ago?
Andy Xie: Price is relative, house prices fell relative to wages and prices, wages and price is one thing, this is the choice of the central bank.
Golden Rock: The Central Bank decided to price, this is what you?
Andy Xie: Inflation will lead to the attitude of the central bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke asked Japan's deflation how cure, Japan said no way, no money, : more concerned about deflation, the central bank, rather than worrying about the issue of inflation into deflation, the central bank can not do anything. We see two levels of policy, a government bypass the banking system, to inject capital into the real economy, which direct the bank holding funds , and does not provide loans to the Government, through asset-backed securities to reduce costs.
of inflation as long as the government can control through interest rate, if deflation is more dangerous.
Golden Rock: Beck (BrianBaker) agreed Guozhong view Central banks are more concerned about do not like deflation, but deflation will send more money, leading to future inflation. the important point, he told a government bypass the banking system, through a variety of products, in fact the disguised inflation injected into the financial system, while the vast majority of these products are fixed-income products.
recognized the value of the asset bubble of asset inflation bubble if
rebirth, the virtual effects of the economically active to bring money, but the transaction generated bubble really is eternal motion implies wealth. Xie choose not to participate, he thought most of virtual transactions, containing dangerous bubble.
Golden Rock is the bubble supporter, he believes the bubble is also wealth.
gold Rock: I see the world, if the whole world as four legs of the table, the real economy accounted for a leg, the other three legs what is it? three sheets of paper: money, stocks, bonds, a package of groceries three sheets of paper, which is today The overall wealth of the world. Guozhong you that the Government does not create wealth, but you can see the real economy in fact go beyond the virtual economy, virtual economy, wealth is not wealth?
Andy Xie: A few days ago I heard a friend said to the house, you can eat when hungry, you can buy the stock dividends, dividends can then buy rice to eat, but where is the difference? in dividend stocks can be traded between, this valuable.
people want to eat the free lunch mentality is very strong, among them, in the evolution of this gene, but this gene will cause a bubble, but not irrational, I think the bubble is false, which is an MLM thing, did not produce wealth.
Andy Xie: You confuse right and wrong, the stock piece of paper today, and tomorrow the same piece of paper, the price is not the same, Barber is a retired worker of a small stool to get my hair to five dollars, South Korea is also engaged in the barber who cuts my little action, that is not the same.
Golden Rock: so get to have a The woman called the man's money, beautiful women, the results to create a transaction, so the transaction to create value is the basic concept of modern economy, I think you should not be completely denied.
Andy Xie: I did not say a bad deal, but a paper constantly in turn, said the paper is worth a lot of money, this time may create value, but sometimes also the virtual, so you believe the value of more money. the same house every day prices, the same stocks every day prices, this is not the same thing.
Golden Rock: how the same house prices not the same thing every day? In fact the house because the value of a transaction, if the Government is now to inject liquidity into the market active, which is virtual you ?
Andy Xie: Many people believe that the transaction is, in particular, traders inside the investment bank, which he believes is a sense of security, you can sell, in fact, this is a false sense of security. as derivative products, this is false security sense, but when there is no risk of trading volume, price changes or a great deal of the worship of such transactions is very dangerous.
design of the bridge as derivatives, derivatives of the design factor is based on fluctuations counted, the risk to be deceptive bargaining in accordance with the fluctuations, this is the daily fluctuations in volatility, the fluctuations in the strength of the bridge with the design is not related to the design when it is five years to see a case of a flood or a hundred years The heaviest floods.
Golden Rock: Guozhong said that only a few transactions to be effective, there is no other transactions with, I think this is transaction-oriented industries, which in the industry, the emergence of various agencies, to define their own as liquidity providers, liquidity, capital market transactions and is expected to be core values.
assets represented by a piece of paper is true, the stock is expected to represent the future, on behalf of mortgage assets, the question now is not too much more than the actual paper issued represents the value of assets. Many consumers do not understand the value of these assets represent, but see the quality of these products tag affixed 3A, which is misleading markets.

the government to listen to how to intervene in asset prices inflation and deflation, it seems better than the credit surge in inflationary expectations do not be avoided, but still need to stimulate the economic downturn, how the government acts? Andy Xie believes that throwing money at the central bank an effective short-term and long-term look at how the adverse impact on capital market participation .
Golden Rock: asset prices if the government policy-making decisions, is not we all give the money to the government, and then wait for the government dividends what? Government in asset prices on the market in the end what role, Guozhong is your opinion? < br> Andy Xie: throwing money at short-run total useful, but the government is not to create wealth, the government itself is not making money, and ultimately get the money from other places over the long run, the Government of the people to participate in the adverse capital market the short term, such actions will cause the market rebound, which traders who are interested in moving a few percentage points a day, to make money, but there is no role for long-term investors, whether the adjustment of an economic framework in place, is sustainable growth, this is worth the investment.
Baker (BrianBaker): the current situation of the banking system is disordered, due to economic slowdown, declining value of their assets, and loan to value is also declining consumer who see their house dropped by 40% -50%, while savings appears to have gradually lost value, consumers will not take the initiative in the current circumstances to spend, the banks do not dare to lend, so they must have short-term government intervention to encourage people to spend.
Golden Rock: In the current unstable situation, government intervention can help restore confidence in the market to help market credit flows, so the consumer can be restored to its normal state, it is Baker's interpretation of how it can and the government to play the game, he is about the future short-term stimulus is gone, take the time to be away a fortune, and a lot of things are based on fixed-income products to enter the market, this product and any related government actions, Lin Ruhui to We interpret what?
Lin Ruhui: just two of many that is an investment of time, temporary intervention may bring some problems, but Baker also spoke, under the present circumstances the government is the only force, as time evolves, we observed future economic, when stabilized, the next step to the credit markets can find a better investment opportunities.
the financial industry Leverage is the root of all evil reflection, which ushered in a painful that the wolf wolf, or that way, although the disclosure Zhang sheep, financial leverage will continue, but the era of big money is really gone.
Baker (BrianBaker): structural derivatives market has been able to support because they believe that there are always under the house to take over, but the assets of the subject matter of the securities, the value of those pieces of paper do not reflect the value of people pay so much money.
Golden Rock: a very valuable look at the actual did things, I pose a question to Guozhong, financial leverage is done, the entire industrial revolution is the application of leverage, financial leverage amplification, that we were walking, then we jump on Wall Street invented the pole vault, the results of folded, financial leverage that such products should or not?
Andy Xie: Finance is a cyclical nature of financial assistance on the economy, investment banks and commercial banks combined are bound to go wrong, the investment bank is a group capable others who try to toss machine, toss it into words did not necessarily mean a bad thing, two years of the bubble is brought to the industrial development of scientific and technological revolution is very cheap capital, we vote in IT, the economy is indeed great benefits, but no big gains to investors. technology is the same, a round of foam, to the progress of society, relatively speaking, it also brings creative destruction.
this not the same, above in the real estate market did not create the mess, which caused great waste of assets that get down to many years to come, and now thinking about making big money, this era has passed, in order to move the other.
Golden Rock: Guozhong out from the investment bank, turned out to be predators, and now do not know what animals, become an independent economist, but independent economists have to eat meat, lunch meat is mixed with a vegetable children, not that the cabbage pork dumplings and do you think Goldman Sachs survived, and then to an increase of the traditional banking business, is not an investment bank to disappear for this animal?
Andy Xie: Do not believe, Goldman Sachs, Morgan transferred into a traditional bank is no way, it is dressed in sheep's clothing, wrap a sheepskin, which has not changed, I think the investment bank ultimately investment banks, commercial banks or commercial banks, and now investment banks become less, a lot of people own their own play dead , and can survive the day, smaller cake, the cake, but fewer people, the recent recovery of the stock are relatively large, the industry will continue to exist, is smaller.
Golden Rock: Beck They have a concept, after the investment bank will be able to survive a shrinking, in fact, did not return to commercial banks as they still do investment banking, PIMCO is the largest investment fund of fixed assets, and the success achieved in the current financial crisis while the body back.
Baker (BrianBaker): Some investment banks are greedy, they designed some very complex products, which can not predict the risk of embedded, packaged these bad assets to the inside of these structures. investors forget the risks, they did not question how could such a good investment a year to buy the product yield.
Andy Xie, Andy Xie, Sohu blog
: real estate stocks can not save the economy
2009 年 04 月 16 日 Oriental Morning Post
independent economist Andy Xie believes that the stock market rise just a bear market rally.
passed out the current economic data, some optimism, caution independent economist Andy Xie said. Andy Xie in Shanghai yesterday afternoon at the Fourth Forum, said rich countries the global accumulation in the protracted post-bubble to the bubble will be very painful process, the overall short-term profitability of the business is unlikely to change for the better, reversing the global economy need to see whether the United States and the implementation of China's reform, and now the market real estate speculation, play the stock market can save the economy, Now is the Greenspan's loose monetary policy caused, and continue to accumulate, and then become the world's economic bubble, and now want to restore to normal.
he said, from a global perspective, the center of the crisis and the consumer of the bubble, but impact of very large producers, because the consumer spending bubble caused excess demand and producing countries to expand production capacity, economic recession this year, producing more serious than the consumer, because consumers who do not buy things, the economy is shrinking large part has been borne by producers, China's coast, Japan, Germany, economic pressure better than the UK, U.S. small.
Xie suggested that the adjustment process to the foam is a very painful process, because the excess capacity to solve problems. to the automotive industry, for example, he said, although prices did not bubble car, but car sales is the bubble, mainly to support the credit, the credit after the burst, a lot of cars will be less consumption, automobile plant to close This is a painful process.
bear market rallies do not really
This is a rather naive idea that if this approach is good economy, the world would be poor? This is especially easy to do. means, I think it is not desirable. State of the bubble burst, real estate and consumption, after normalization, the pressure on the big producing countries, the production capacity of Congress to face the pressure of shrinking the pressure and create their own consumption or, failing that, will eventually trigger a new round crisis.
small, there are one or two companies may get better profits, but overall profitability is unlikely to change for the better. activities about, bear market rally is caused to this mentality, the market looks short-term fire, and there are many people as true, and finally jump into it and then be stuck.
the two-condition of economic reversal
Andy Xie believes the current round of liquidity and fiscal policies to stimulate the release will make the economy rebound in the second half, but the world economy may experience a second recession, the recession was the lack of continued momentum of economic growth, falling stocks, the Council continue to rise again.
Andy Xie noted that central banks now print a lot of money, liquidity has been released, but when signs of inflation appear, when liquidity is withdrawn, the second crisis, and the second deflation to come, financial resources in many countries can not keep up, this is the most painful time, only one way is to reform, the reform mainly to see the world the U.S. and China.
This is to encourage people to deposit, to promote the nationalization of financial institutions, but now the U.S. government do not want to nationalize financial institutions, still playing the game, the U.S. financial system is bankrupt, but still able to shop, this is a tragedy, if you do not willing to take the nationalization, this road is very difficult. > For China's reform, Andy Xie believes that consumers should support the people, not Now Chinese people are not reluctant to spend money, is money, even though the bank 20 trillion yuan of people stood deposits, but more than half of wealth in few hands, most people have no money, do not cut from here, the Chinese economy would like to have the possibility of fundamental change is not great.
The real bull market (is) turned to the family wealth in China, the U.S. nationalization of banks, there are two things, the new bull market is about to begin.